The forecast is only half the product

A forecast earns trust only when its delivery, abstentions, invalidations, and outcomes remain visible. Directional accuracy is important, but it is not the whole product.

The Genius Never Dies intelligence desk separates observation, analysis, and authorization. Every scenario should state what supports it, what breaks it, and what conditions justify doing nothing.

Road to December documents that process in public. Wins, misses, corrections, and correct no-trade decisions belong in the same permanent record.